V-Lab
Runsystem Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
8,586.09
decreased by 474.01
1 Week
5,346.65
decreased by 3,713.45
1 Month
4,132.62
decreased by 4,927.48
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 07:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 18, 2004 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 69314 trading days (~275.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0212 | 0.44 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1946 | 0.05 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8054 | 0.20 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.3774 | -1.12 |
| γ2 | 0.3925 | 1.15 |
| γ3 | 0.0591 | 0.68 |
| γ4 | -0.1674 | -2.39** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
69314 days
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