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Runsystem Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

8,586.09

decreased by 474.01

1 Week

5,346.65

decreased by 3,713.45

1 Month

4,132.62

decreased by 4,927.48

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 07:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Runsystem Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 18, 2004 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 69314 trading days (~275.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0212
0.44
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1946
0.05
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8054
0.20
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-0.3774
-1.12
γ20.3925
1.15
γ30.0591
0.68
γ4-0.1674
-2.39**

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

69314 days