V-Lab
Hunt Electronic Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
2,808.73
increased by 495.35
1 Week
2,633.70
increased by 320.32
1 Month
6,546.93
increased by 4,233.55
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 09:11 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 20, 2005 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1338 trading days (~5.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~1338 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.8615 | 1.85* |
| αARCH | 0.2243 | 8.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7752 | 30.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.2267 | -0.28 |
| γ2 | -1.2404 | -0.72 |
| γ3 | 6.1220 | 1.18 |
| γ4 | -10.6958 | -1.37 |
| γ5 | 11.5731 | 1.61 |
| γ6 | -8.2766 | -1.82* |
| γ7 | 2.9492 | 1.87* |
| γ8 | -0.3660 | -0.86 |
| γ9 | 0.5667 | 0.73 |
0.999
Persistence1338d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.8615 | 1.85* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2243 | 8.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7752 | 30.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.2267 | -0.28 |
| γ2 | -1.2404 | -0.72 |
| γ3 | 6.1220 | 1.18 |
| γ4 | -10.6958 | -1.37 |
| γ5 | 11.5731 | 1.61 |
| γ6 | -8.2766 | -1.82* |
| γ7 | 2.9492 | 1.87* |
| γ8 | -0.3660 | -0.86 |
| γ9 | 0.5667 | 0.73 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1338 days
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