V-Lab
Hotman Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026
1 Day
5,856.60
increased by 2,289.47
1 Week
3,715.30
increased by 148.17
1 Month
3,538.76
decreased by 28.37
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 07:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 24, 2014 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6474 | 7.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1003 | 7.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8705 | 48.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0304 | -5.35*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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