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V-Lab

Hotman Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026

1 Day

5,856.60

increased by 2,289.47

1 Week

3,715.30

increased by 148.17

1 Month

3,538.76

decreased by 28.37

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 07:25 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hotman Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 24, 2014 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6474
7.82***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1003
7.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8705
48.21***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0304
-5.35***

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

23 days