Skip to main content
V-Lab

Create Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

4,504.84

increased by 1,486.87

1 Week

3,453.80

increased by 435.83

1 Month

2,522.48

decreased by 495.49

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 07:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Create Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 3, 2006 to Aug 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 57 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4864
4.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0541
7.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9338
102.44***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.1742
-6.85***
γ20.2250
5.22***
γ3-0.0822
-1.76*

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

57 days