V-Lab
Create Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
4,504.84
increased by 1,486.87
1 Week
3,453.80
increased by 435.83
1 Month
2,522.48
decreased by 495.49
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 07:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 3, 2006 to Aug 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 57 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4864 | 4.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0541 | 7.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9338 | 102.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.1742 | -6.85*** |
| γ2 | 0.2250 | 5.22*** |
| γ3 | -0.0822 | -1.76* |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
57 days
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