V-Lab
Joyvio Food Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
1,721.76
increased by 234.13
1 Week
1,413.88
decreased by 73.75
1 Month
1,176.58
decreased by 311.05
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 27, 2011 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8134 | 0.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3560 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6440 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.5124 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 0.6908 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -0.2063 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
138629 days
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