V-Lab
Joyvio Food Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
576.48
decreased by 20.64
1 Week
635.97
increased by 38.85
1 Month
526.00
decreased by 71.12
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 07:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 27, 2011 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~77016 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2568 | 0.01 |
| αARCH | 0.3386 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.6614 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.8318 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 4.6165 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -13.5070 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 21.9416 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -18.1561 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | 6.4637 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | 0.0275 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | -1.5425 | -0.01 |
| γ9 | 1.3634 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence77016d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2568 | 0.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3386 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6614 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.8318 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 4.6165 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -13.5070 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 21.9416 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -18.1561 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | 6.4637 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | 0.0275 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | -1.5425 | -0.01 |
| γ9 | 1.3634 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
77016 days
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