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Semba Tohka Indstries Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

6,004.52

increased by 1,891.68

1 Week

3,816.09

decreased by 296.75

1 Month

3,336.56

decreased by 776.28

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Semba Tohka Indstries Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 3, 2024 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.9616
8.24***
αARCH0.1056
2.87***
βGARCH0.6958
5.90***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1436
-0.84

0.801

Persistence

3d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.9616
8.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1056
2.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6958
5.90***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1436
-0.84

Persistence:

0.801

Half-life:

3 days