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Tabio Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

5,728.00

increased by 1,770.59

1 Week

3,977.02

increased by 19.61

1 Month

3,931.73

decreased by 25.68

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 08:28 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tabio Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 23, 2001 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~138629 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9766
1.75*
αARCH0.0866
0.09
βGARCH0.9134
0.92
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0694
-0.04
γ20.1021
0.04

1.000

Persistence

138629d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9766
1.75*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0866
0.09
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9134
0.92
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0694
-0.04
γ20.1021
0.04

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

138629 days