Tabio Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026
1 Day
5,728.00
increased by 1,770.59
1 Week
3,977.02
increased by 19.61
1 Month
3,931.73
decreased by 25.68
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 08:28 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 23, 2001 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~138629 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9766 | 1.75* |
| αARCH | 0.0866 | 0.09 |
| βGARCH | 0.9134 | 0.92 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0694 | -0.04 |
| γ2 | 0.1021 | 0.04 |
1.000
Persistence138629d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9766 | 1.75* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0866 | 0.09 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9134 | 0.92 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0694 | -0.04 |
| γ2 | 0.1021 | 0.04 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
138629 days
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