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Soonest Express Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

7,708.15

increased by 4,547.52

1 Week

3,853.45

increased by 692.82

1 Month

3,663.61

increased by 502.98

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 08:48 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Soonest Express Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 26, 2014 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4262
0.07
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2103
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7897
0.01
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.2788
0.00
γ2-1.2157
0.00
γ32.6646
0.01
γ4-1.2009
-0.07
γ5-0.2975
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

99021 days