V-Lab
Soonest Express Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
7,708.15
increased by 4,547.52
1 Week
3,853.45
increased by 692.82
1 Month
3,663.61
increased by 502.98
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 08:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 26, 2014 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4262 | 0.07 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2103 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7897 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.2788 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -1.2157 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 2.6646 | 0.01 |
| γ4 | -1.2009 | -0.07 |
| γ5 | -0.2975 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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