V-Lab
Caocao Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
3,829.91
decreased by 4,945.28
1 Week
5,931.73
decreased by 2,843.46
1 Month
2,847.23
decreased by 5,927.96
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 07:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 25, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9755 | 9.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.2774 | 3.32*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0884 | 0.71 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 1.6461 | 2.69*** |
0.366
Persistence1d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9755 | 9.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2774 | 3.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0884 | 0.71 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 1.6461 | 2.69*** |
Persistence:
0.366
Half-life:
1 days
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