Mokingran Jewellery Group Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 16th, 2026
1 Day
6,949.94
unchanged at 0.00
1 Week
6,705.79
decreased by 244.15
1 Month
5,646.06
decreased by 1,303.88
Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 29, 2024 to Nov 13, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6479 | 3.23*** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9205 | 9.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -4.5883 | -0.42 |
| γ2 | 19.1402 | 1.16 |
| γ3 | -27.6102 | -1.69* |
| γ4 | 43.2736 | 2.01** |
| γ5 | -104.4687 | -3.41*** |
| γ6 | 139.8892 | 4.38*** |
| γ7 | -99.2273 | -4.28*** |
| γ8 | 58.6275 | 3.02*** |
0.921
Persistence8d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6479 | 3.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9205 | 9.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -4.5883 | -0.42 |
| γ2 | 19.1402 | 1.16 |
| γ3 | -27.6102 | -1.69* |
| γ4 | 43.2736 | 2.01** |
| γ5 | -104.4687 | -3.41*** |
| γ6 | 139.8892 | 4.38*** |
| γ7 | -99.2273 | -4.28*** |
| γ8 | 58.6275 | 3.02*** |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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