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Pegbio Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

21,724.82

increased by 17,880.99

1 Week

7,016.30

increased by 3,172.47

1 Month

3,245.36

decreased by 598.47

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 06:50 PM UTC

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graph of Pegbio Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 27, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~86643 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8019
0.01
αARCH0.3200
0.00
βGARCH0.6800
0.00
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ15.6378
0.00

1.000

Persistence

86643d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8019
0.01
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3200
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6800
0.00
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ15.6378
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

86643 days