V-Lab
Pegbio Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
21,724.82
increased by 17,880.99
1 Week
7,016.30
increased by 3,172.47
1 Month
3,245.36
decreased by 598.47
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 06:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 27, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~86643 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8019 | 0.01 |
| αARCH | 0.3200 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.6800 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 5.6378 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence86643d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8019 | 0.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3200 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6800 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 5.6378 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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