V-Lab
System Location Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
13,711.00
increased by 7,496.10
1 Week
4,843.79
decreased by 1,371.11
1 Month
2,491.23
decreased by 3,723.67
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 21, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 227 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6545 | 3.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1638 | 12.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8332 | 62.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.7659 | -7.37*** |
| γ2 | 1.1913 | 6.57*** |
| γ3 | -0.6950 | -4.19*** |
| γ4 | 0.4223 | 2.84*** |
| γ5 | -0.2976 | -1.64 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
227 days
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