V-Lab
Css Holdings Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
7,114.22
decreased by 214.42
1 Week
4,624.52
decreased by 2,704.12
1 Month
3,251.36
decreased by 4,077.28
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 07:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2002 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8508 | 0.18 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1735 | 0.02 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8265 | 0.11 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.2683 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -0.7270 | -0.01 |
| γ3 | 0.7488 | 0.14 |
| γ4 | -0.4768 | -0.11 |
| γ5 | 0.3771 | 0.09 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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