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Cubtek Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

5,575.29

increased by 745.70

1 Week

5,335.43

increased by 505.84

1 Month

5,617.51

increased by 787.92

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Cubtek Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 23, 2021 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~86643 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9308
4.15***
αARCH0.1658
0.05
βGARCH0.8342
0.24
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.5787
-0.11

1.000

Persistence

86643d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9308
4.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1658
0.05
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8342
0.24
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.5787
-0.11

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

86643 days