Cubtek Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
5,575.29
increased by 745.70
1 Week
5,335.43
increased by 505.84
1 Month
5,617.51
increased by 787.92
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 23, 2021 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~86643 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9308 | 4.15*** |
| αARCH | 0.1658 | 0.05 |
| βGARCH | 0.8342 | 0.24 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.5787 | -0.11 |
1.000
Persistence86643d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9308 | 4.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1658 | 0.05 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8342 | 0.24 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.5787 | -0.11 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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