V-Lab
Kd Chem Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
5,854.94
decreased by 1,019.82
1 Week
3,619.83
decreased by 3,254.93
1 Month
2,724.69
decreased by 4,150.07
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2015 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 30 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5982 | 5.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1339 | 8.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8433 | 42.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.1689 | -4.47*** |
| γ2 | 0.3598 | 5.34*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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