V-Lab
Clover Biopharmaceuticals Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
5,238.97
increased by 587.34
1 Week
4,518.54
decreased by 133.09
1 Month
4,762.23
increased by 110.60
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 06:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 5, 2021 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~99021 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9616 | 3.42*** |
| αARCH | 0.2611 | 0.03 |
| βGARCH | 0.7389 | 0.10 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.7731 | -0.04 |
1.000
Persistence99021d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9616 | 3.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2611 | 0.03 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7389 | 0.10 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.7731 | -0.04 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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