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Rongzun International Holdings Group Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

13,477.59

increased by 8,391.29

1 Week

8,087.20

increased by 3,000.90

1 Month

3,285.41

decreased by 1,800.89

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 06:39 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Rongzun International Holdings Group Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 1, 2019 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 129 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~129 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7848
3.25***
αARCH0.3392
10.05***
βGARCH0.6555
19.53***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ19.9336
1.79*
γ2-20.4438
-2.68***
γ310.4961
2.70***
γ48.8090
1.92*
γ5-21.8107
-4.40***
γ626.6732
5.19***
γ7-22.1215
-2.92***
γ83.7360
0.36
γ912.9518
0.92

0.995

Persistence

129d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7848
3.25***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3392
10.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6555
19.53***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ19.9336
1.79*
γ2-20.4438
-2.68***
γ310.4961
2.70***
γ48.8090
1.92*
γ5-21.8107
-4.40***
γ626.6732
5.19***
γ7-22.1215
-2.92***
γ83.7360
0.36
γ912.9518
0.92

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

129 days