Rongzun International Holdings Group Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
13,477.59
increased by 8,391.29
1 Week
8,087.20
increased by 3,000.90
1 Month
3,285.41
decreased by 1,800.89
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 06:39 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 1, 2019 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 129 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~129 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7848 | 3.25*** |
| αARCH | 0.3392 | 10.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6555 | 19.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 9.9336 | 1.79* |
| γ2 | -20.4438 | -2.68*** |
| γ3 | 10.4961 | 2.70*** |
| γ4 | 8.8090 | 1.92* |
| γ5 | -21.8107 | -4.40*** |
| γ6 | 26.6732 | 5.19*** |
| γ7 | -22.1215 | -2.92*** |
| γ8 | 3.7360 | 0.36 |
| γ9 | 12.9518 | 0.92 |
0.995
Persistence129d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7848 | 3.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3392 | 10.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6555 | 19.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 9.9336 | 1.79* |
| γ2 | -20.4438 | -2.68*** |
| γ3 | 10.4961 | 2.70*** |
| γ4 | 8.8090 | 1.92* |
| γ5 | -21.8107 | -4.40*** |
| γ6 | 26.6732 | 5.19*** |
| γ7 | -22.1215 | -2.92*** |
| γ8 | 3.7360 | 0.36 |
| γ9 | 12.9518 | 0.92 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
129 days
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