V-Lab
Xin Point Holdings Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
10,811.44
increased by 6,924.16
1 Week
4,864.36
increased by 977.08
1 Month
4,654.74
increased by 767.46
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 06:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 28, 2017 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~99021 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3405 | 0.01 |
| αARCH | 0.1967 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8033 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 2.6829 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -6.6463 | -0.01 |
| γ3 | 6.4848 | 0.01 |
| γ4 | -5.0206 | -0.01 |
| γ5 | 3.7755 | 0.01 |
| γ6 | -1.1479 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence99021d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3405 | 0.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1967 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8033 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 2.6829 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -6.6463 | -0.01 |
| γ3 | 6.4848 | 0.01 |
| γ4 | -5.0206 | -0.01 |
| γ5 | 3.7755 | 0.01 |
| γ6 | -1.1479 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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