Acelon Chemicals & Fiber Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026
1 Day
6,752.93
increased by 1,714.34
1 Week
5,631.12
increased by 592.53
1 Month
5,315.16
increased by 276.57
Analysis last updated: Friday, November 6, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2002 to Nov 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 158 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~158 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 6.3228 | 6.13*** |
| αARCH | 0.1396 | 11.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8560 | 65.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0264 | 5.51*** |
0.996
Persistence158d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.3228 | 6.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1396 | 11.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8560 | 65.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0264 | 5.51*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
158 days
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