Nissou Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026
1 Day
4,395.30
increased by 646.07
1 Week
4,089.93
increased by 340.70
1 Month
4,356.37
increased by 607.14
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 08:25 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2020 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~72 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4926 | 4.97*** |
| αARCH | 0.1337 | 7.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8567 | 47.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0252 | -0.46 |
0.990
Persistence72d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4926 | 4.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1337 | 7.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8567 | 47.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0252 | -0.46 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
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