V-Lab
SPT Energy Group Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
966,942.30
decreased by 88,056.70
1 Week
1,134,426.06
increased by 79,427.06
1 Month
3,926,852.68
increased by 2,871,853.68
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 27, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 20386 trading days (~80.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1138 | 2.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2211 | 0.08 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7788 | 0.28 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -7.7048 | -0.05 |
| γ2 | 14.4959 | 0.05 |
| γ3 | -8.7930 | -0.06 |
| γ4 | 0.6758 | 0.02 |
| γ5 | 2.5729 | 1.16 |
| γ6 | -1.8555 | -0.55 |
| γ7 | 1.4632 | 0.42 |
| γ8 | -2.1209 | -1.89* |
| γ9 | 2.0260 | 0.72 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
20386 days
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