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SPT Energy Group Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

822,787.20

decreased by 72,328.40

1 Week

943,104.15

increased by 47,988.55

1 Month

1,634,156.09

increased by 739,040.49

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:48 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SPT Energy Group Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 27, 2011 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 14440 trading days (~57.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~14440 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0956
2.57**
αARCH0.2207
0.22
βGARCH0.7793
0.78
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-7.4184
-0.13
γ214.1774
0.14
γ3-8.9748
-0.16
γ41.1190
0.07
γ52.2326
1.24
γ6-1.6823
-0.99
γ71.3699
0.75
γ8-2.1248
-1.90*
γ92.1937
1.51

1.000

Persistence

14440d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0956
2.57**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2207
0.22
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7793
0.78
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-7.4184
-0.13
γ214.1774
0.14
γ3-8.9748
-0.16
γ41.1190
0.07
γ52.2326
1.24
γ6-1.6823
-0.99
γ71.3699
0.75
γ8-2.1248
-1.90*
γ92.1937
1.51

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

14440 days