V-Lab
SPT Energy Group Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
822,787.20
decreased by 72,328.40
1 Week
943,104.15
increased by 47,988.55
1 Month
1,634,156.09
increased by 739,040.49
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:48 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 27, 2011 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 14440 trading days (~57.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~14440 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0956 | 2.57** |
| αARCH | 0.2207 | 0.22 |
| βGARCH | 0.7793 | 0.78 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -7.4184 | -0.13 |
| γ2 | 14.1774 | 0.14 |
| γ3 | -8.9748 | -0.16 |
| γ4 | 1.1190 | 0.07 |
| γ5 | 2.2326 | 1.24 |
| γ6 | -1.6823 | -0.99 |
| γ7 | 1.3699 | 0.75 |
| γ8 | -2.1248 | -1.90* |
| γ9 | 2.1937 | 1.51 |
1.000
Persistence14440d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0956 | 2.57** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2207 | 0.22 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7793 | 0.78 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -7.4184 | -0.13 |
| γ2 | 14.1774 | 0.14 |
| γ3 | -8.9748 | -0.16 |
| γ4 | 1.1190 | 0.07 |
| γ5 | 2.2326 | 1.24 |
| γ6 | -1.6823 | -0.99 |
| γ7 | 1.3699 | 0.75 |
| γ8 | -2.1248 | -1.90* |
| γ9 | 2.1937 | 1.51 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
14440 days
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