Dongil Metal Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
8,059.17
increased by 6,948.42
1 Week
2,967.18
increased by 1,856.43
1 Month
1,932.92
increased by 822.17
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 09:13 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 29, 2009 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1853 trading days (~7.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1853 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0898 | 3.56*** |
| αARCH | 0.1873 | 13.86*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8123 | 59.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0420 | -3.72*** |
1.000
Persistence1853d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0898 | 3.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1873 | 13.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8123 | 59.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0420 | -3.72*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1853 days
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