Epiroc Ab Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
3,708.78
decreased by 588.90
1 Week
4,447.53
increased by 149.85
1 Month
3,700.92
decreased by 596.76
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 8, 2018 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 467 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5516 | 2.03** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1948 | 4.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8037 | 18.85*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.6249 | -0.19 |
| γ2 | 9.1343 | 0.76 |
| γ3 | -19.3917 | -2.19** |
| γ4 | 18.4976 | 3.08*** |
| γ5 | -11.5164 | -1.69* |
| γ6 | 3.6813 | 0.28 |
| γ7 | 22.5743 | 1.21 |
| γ8 | -39.8353 | -1.91* |
| γ9 | 20.9029 | 1.67* |
| γ10 | -1.5710 | -0.29 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
467 days
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