V-Lab
Banque Cantonale Vaudoise Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
18,075.74
increased by 11,859.33
1 Week
8,756.71
increased by 2,540.30
1 Month
3,091.03
decreased by 3,125.38
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 08:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 9, 2014 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 987 trading days (~3.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2457 | 2.20** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2922 | 10.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7071 | 25.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -10.8145 | -3.53*** |
| γ2 | 14.5107 | 3.40*** |
| γ3 | -3.3887 | -1.70* |
| γ4 | -2.6392 | -2.08** |
| γ5 | 7.3657 | 2.97*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
987 days
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