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Banque Cantonale Vaudoise Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026

1 Day

18,075.74

increased by 11,859.33

1 Week

8,756.71

increased by 2,540.30

1 Month

3,091.03

decreased by 3,125.38

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 08:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Banque Cantonale Vaudoise ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 9, 2014 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 987 trading days (~3.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2457
2.20**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2922
10.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7071
25.71***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-10.8145
-3.53***
γ214.5107
3.40***
γ3-3.3887
-1.70*
γ4-2.6392
-2.08**
γ57.3657
2.97***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

987 days