V-Lab
Shanghai Hongda New Material Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
16,927.67
increased by 8,565.09
1 Week
6,385.01
decreased by 1,977.57
1 Month
2,241.70
decreased by 6,120.88
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 06:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 1, 2008 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0334 | 0.95 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3521 | 0.09 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6479 | 0.17 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0016 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
77016 days
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