V-Lab
Shenwu Energy Saving Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026
1 Day
16,080.40
increased by 13,321.92
1 Week
6,133.26
increased by 3,374.78
1 Month
3,262.38
increased by 503.90
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 06:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7480 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3204 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6796 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.1158 | -0.46 |
| γ2 | 0.1413 | 0.06 |
| γ3 | -0.0176 | -0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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