V-Lab
Zhongchao Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
653.02%
decreased by 147.56%
1 Week
551.58%
decreased by 249.00%
1 Month
416.41%
decreased by 384.17%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 24, 2020 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0999 | 3.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1554 | 3.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5930 | 4.20*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 8.2101 | 1.74* |
| γ2 | -14.2881 | -1.86* |
| γ3 | 12.3408 | 2.45** |
| γ4 | -11.4655 | -2.06** |
| γ5 | 7.0879 | 0.98 |
| γ6 | 1.6920 | 0.32 |
| γ7 | -7.8136 | -2.65*** |
| γ8 | 3.5462 | 0.94 |
| γ9 | 5.7654 | 1.24 |
| γ10 | -8.5001 | -2.47** |
Persistence:
0.748
Half-life:
2 days
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