Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility Prediction for Friday, February 13th, 2026:1.45% (+0.04%)
Parameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.9868 | 5.38 | |
| 0.0975 | 5.94 | |
| 0.8455 | 36.81 | |
| -0.4422 | -2.91 | |
| 0.9718 | 4.36 | |
| -0.8472 | -4.94 | |
| 0.4448 | 2.13 | |
| -0.3756 | -1.61 | |
| 0.8772 | 4.39 | |
| -1.2015 | -6.58 | |
| 0.7195 | 4.79 |
Estimation Period:
Nov 23, 2009 to Feb 6, 2026
Nov 23, 2009 to Feb 6, 2026
News Impact Curve
Volatility Forecasts
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