Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility Prediction for Wednesday, February 11th, 2026:1.55% (-0.01%)
Parameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.9875 | 5.47 | |
| 0.0991 | 5.93 | |
| 0.8405 | 35.42 | |
| -0.4463 | -2.98 | |
| 0.9817 | 4.47 | |
| -0.8594 | -5.08 | |
| 0.4610 | 2.23 | |
| -0.4005 | -1.73 | |
| 0.9229 | 4.60 | |
| -1.2979 | -6.52 | |
| 0.9328 | 3.33 |
Estimation Period:
Nov 23, 2009 to Feb 6, 2026
Nov 23, 2009 to Feb 6, 2026
News Impact Curve
Volatility Forecasts
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