Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility Prediction for Thursday, February 12th, 2026:3.24% (+0.02%)
Parameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0530 | 5.98 | |
| 0.0729 | 5.78 | |
| 0.8706 | 39.14 | |
| -0.4301 | -3.12 | |
| 0.7936 | 3.85 | |
| -0.5781 | -3.98 | |
| 0.3079 | 1.94 | |
| -0.1922 | -1.05 | |
| 0.4921 | 3.00 | |
| -0.9038 | -6.21 | |
| 0.7119 | 6.61 |
Estimation Period:
Nov 23, 2009 to Feb 6, 2026
Nov 23, 2009 to Feb 6, 2026
News Impact Curve
Volatility Forecasts
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