V-Lab
US Dollar to Philippine Peso Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
3.95%
increased by 0.13%
1 Week
4.00%
increased by 0.18%
1 Month
4.15%
increased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 18, 1992 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 25 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.0952 | 4.11*** |
| αARCH | 0.0881 | 8.51*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8849 | 58.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.2493 | 6.89*** |
| γ2 | -0.3765 | -5.20*** |
| γ3 | 0.2070 | 2.67*** |
| γ4 | -0.1022 | -1.82* |
| γ5 | -0.0047 | -0.14 |
| γ6 | 0.0646 | 2.56** |
| γ7 | -0.0582 | -2.25** |
| γ8 | 0.0425 | 1.62 |
| γ9 | -0.0605 | -1.79* |
0.973
Persistence25d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.0952 | 4.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0881 | 8.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8849 | 58.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.2493 | 6.89*** |
| γ2 | -0.3765 | -5.20*** |
| γ3 | 0.2070 | 2.67*** |
| γ4 | -0.1022 | -1.82* |
| γ5 | -0.0047 | -0.14 |
| γ6 | 0.0646 | 2.56** |
| γ7 | -0.0582 | -2.25** |
| γ8 | 0.0425 | 1.62 |
| γ9 | -0.0605 | -1.79* |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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