V-Lab
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
42.60%
decreased by 3.01%
1 Week
43.49%
decreased by 2.12%
1 Month
45.82%
increased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 25, 2009 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6188 | 6.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0368 | 1.69* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7974 | 62.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2051 | 4.71*** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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