FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
24.21%
increased by 0.43%
1 Week
24.45%
increased by 0.67%
1 Month
25.30%
increased by 1.52%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:00 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2003 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 33 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1507 | 9.28*** |
| αARCH | 0.0722 | 6.93*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9068 | 75.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0051 | 3.43*** |
0.979
Persistence33d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1507 | 9.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0722 | 6.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9068 | 75.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0051 | 3.43*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
Other FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices