V-Lab
Vinacomin Vang Danh Coal Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
22.84%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
22.95%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Month
23.12%
decreased by 0.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 10, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5755 | 6.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1482 | 5.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6903 | 12.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.2919 | 1.08 |
| γ2 | -0.5786 | -1.26 |
| γ3 | 0.8152 | 2.35** |
| γ4 | -1.0434 | -4.12*** |
| γ5 | 0.7734 | 3.49*** |
| γ6 | -0.0544 | -0.22 |
| γ7 | -0.7655 | -3.05*** |
| γ8 | 0.8002 | 3.45*** |
| γ9 | -0.1638 | -0.94 |
Persistence:
0.838
Half-life:
4 days
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