V-Lab
Vinacomin Vang Danh Coal Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
23.94%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Week
23.76%
decreased by 1.37%
1 Month
23.49%
decreased by 1.64%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 03:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 10, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5697 | 6.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1491 | 5.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6839 | 12.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.2771 | 1.05 |
| γ2 | -0.5500 | -1.23 |
| γ3 | 0.7901 | 2.32** |
| γ4 | -1.0380 | -4.19*** |
| γ5 | 0.8093 | 3.80*** |
| γ6 | -0.1238 | -0.53 |
| γ7 | -0.7191 | -2.99*** |
| γ8 | 0.8304 | 3.69*** |
| γ9 | -0.2266 | -1.35 |
Persistence:
0.833
Half-life:
4 days
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