Turkish New Lira GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, June 15th, 2026
1 Day
2.46%
increased by 0.15%
1 Week
2.51%
increased by 0.20%
1 Month
2.71%
increased by 0.40%
Analysis last updated: Friday, June 12, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0005 | 4.61 | |
| 0.0840 | 24.10 | |
| 0.9358 | 313.82 | |
| -0.0397 | -6.06 |
Estimation Period:
Jul 31, 2001 to Jun 12, 2026
Jul 31, 2001 to Jun 12, 2026
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