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Patria Top Offices Fundo de Investimento Imobiliario - Responsabilidade Limitada GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

20.64%

increased by 0.69%

1 Week

20.99%

increased by 1.04%

1 Month

22.27%

increased by 2.32%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Patria Top Offices Fundo de Investimento Imobiliario - Responsabilidade Limitada GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 7, 2024 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.28 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 daysv = 6.28 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst4.8634
1.28
αARCH0.1428
4.14***
βGARCH0.9907
144.95***
νDF6.2798
1.21

0.991

Persistence

74d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.8634
1.28
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1428
4.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9907
144.95***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.2798
1.21

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

74 days