V-Lab
Patria Top Offices Fundo de Investimento Imobiliario - Responsabilidade Limitada GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
20.64%
increased by 0.69%
1 Week
20.99%
increased by 1.04%
1 Month
22.27%
increased by 2.32%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 7, 2024 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.28 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 daysv = 6.28 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.8634 | 1.28 |
| αARCH | 0.1428 | 4.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9907 | 144.95*** |
| νDF | 6.2798 | 1.21 |
0.991
Persistence74d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.8634 | 1.28 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1428 | 4.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9907 | 144.95*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.2798 | 1.21 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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