V-Lab
STAG Industrial Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
18.91%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Week
19.31%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Month
20.52%
increased by 0.68%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:16 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 15, 2011 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 20-day half-lifev = 6.09 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.3157 | 2.61*** |
| αARCH | 0.0778 | 5.29*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9656 | 69.46*** |
| νDF | 6.0929 | 1.23 |
0.966
Persistence20d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3157 | 2.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0778 | 5.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9656 | 69.46*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0929 | 1.23 |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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