V-Lab
Patria Securities Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario Responsabilidade Limitada GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
20.09%
1 Week
20.37%
1 Month
21.41%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 5, 2020 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 249 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.40 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 9.5616 | 1.65* |
| αARCH | 0.1017 | 13.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9972 | 605.11*** |
| νDF | 3.3955 | 11.12*** |
0.997
Persistence249d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.5616 | 1.65* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1017 | 13.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9972 | 605.11*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.3955 | 11.12*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
249 days
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