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V-Lab

Patria Securities Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario Responsabilidade Limitada GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

20.09%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Week

20.37%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Month

21.41%

increased by 0.76%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Patria Securities Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario Responsabilidade Limitada GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 5, 2020 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 249 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.40 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~249 daysv = 3.40 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst9.5616
1.65*
αARCH0.1017
13.13***
βGARCH0.9972
605.11***
νDF3.3955
11.12***

0.997

Persistence

249d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

9.5616
1.65*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1017
13.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9972
605.11***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.3955
11.12***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

249 days