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Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario Caixa Agencias GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

26.20%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Week

26.35%

increased by 0.00%

1 Month

26.92%

increased by 0.57%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/29/2024

to

09/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario Caixa Agencias GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2022 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 159 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~159 daysv = 2.54 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst6.2976
1.81*
αARCH0.0927
11.66***
βGARCH0.9956
454.01***
νDF2.5354
24.59***

0.996

Persistence

159d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.2976
1.81*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0927
11.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9956
454.01***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.5354
24.59***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

159 days