V-Lab
Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario Caixa Agencias GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
26.20%
1 Week
26.35%
1 Month
26.92%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2022 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 159 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 6.2976 | 1.81* |
| αARCH | 0.0927 | 11.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9956 | 454.01*** |
| νDF | 2.5354 | 24.59*** |
0.996
Persistence159d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.2976 | 1.81* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0927 | 11.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9956 | 454.01*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.5354 | 24.59*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
159 days
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