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Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario Caixa Agencias Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

18.18%

decreased by 1.15%

1 Week

18.91%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Month

19.34%

increased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/29/2024

to

09/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario Caixa Agencias SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2022 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.0089
4.58***
αARCH0.1873
3.23***
βGARCH0.3974
2.37**
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ14.3806
3.11***
γ2-7.1152
-2.96***
γ35.4860
2.99***
γ4-5.0665
-3.49***
γ55.0564
3.24***

0.585

Persistence

1d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.0089
4.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1873
3.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3974
2.37**
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ14.3806
3.11***
γ2-7.1152
-2.96***
γ35.4860
2.99***
γ4-5.0665
-3.49***
γ55.0564
3.24***

Persistence:

0.585

Half-life:

1 days