V-Lab
Living REIT PLC Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
19.91%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Week
20.22%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Month
20.85%
decreased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 8, 2017 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1762 | 3.57*** |
| αARCH | 0.1351 | 4.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7510 | 15.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0020 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -0.9322 | -1.56 |
| γ3 | 1.8828 | 5.27*** |
| γ4 | -1.7603 | -5.25*** |
| γ5 | 1.1232 | 3.47*** |
| γ6 | -0.3816 | -0.89 |
0.886
Persistence6d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1762 | 3.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1351 | 4.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7510 | 15.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0020 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -0.9322 | -1.56 |
| γ3 | 1.8828 | 5.27*** |
| γ4 | -1.7603 | -5.25*** |
| γ5 | 1.1232 | 3.47*** |
| γ6 | -0.3816 | -0.89 |
Persistence:
0.886
Half-life:
6 days
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