V-Lab
Living REIT PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
20.40%
decreased by 1.17%
1 Week
20.81%
decreased by 0.76%
1 Month
21.62%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 8, 2017 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1763 | 3.56*** |
| αARCH | 0.1351 | 4.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7516 | 15.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0046 | -0.01 |
| γ2 | -0.9263 | -1.55 |
| γ3 | 1.8744 | 5.24*** |
| γ4 | -1.7447 | -5.24*** |
| γ5 | 1.0877 | 3.67*** |
| γ6 | -0.2851 | -1.47 |
0.887
Persistence6d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1763 | 3.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1351 | 4.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7516 | 15.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0046 | -0.01 |
| γ2 | -0.9263 | -1.55 |
| γ3 | 1.8744 | 5.24*** |
| γ4 | -1.7447 | -5.24*** |
| γ5 | 1.0877 | 3.67*** |
| γ6 | -0.2851 | -1.47 |
Persistence:
0.887
Half-life:
6 days
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