V-Lab
FII Vida Nova Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
67.36%
increased by 2.93%
1 Week
76.51%
increased by 12.08%
1 Month
82.97%
increased by 18.54%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 4, 2015 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.7631 | 3.86*** |
| αARCH | 0.2963 | 5.28*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3682 | 5.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 7.0263 | 2.88*** |
| γ2 | -9.4499 | -2.49** |
| γ3 | 4.0350 | 1.90* |
| γ4 | -3.2916 | -1.09 |
| γ5 | 3.1454 | 0.89 |
| γ6 | -2.5705 | -1.01 |
| γ7 | 2.9975 | 1.98** |
| γ8 | -3.8787 | -3.48*** |
| γ9 | 2.6589 | 3.07*** |
0.664
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.7631 | 3.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2963 | 5.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3682 | 5.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 7.0263 | 2.88*** |
| γ2 | -9.4499 | -2.49** |
| γ3 | 4.0350 | 1.90* |
| γ4 | -3.2916 | -1.09 |
| γ5 | 3.1454 | 0.89 |
| γ6 | -2.5705 | -1.01 |
| γ7 | 2.9975 | 1.98** |
| γ8 | -3.8787 | -3.48*** |
| γ9 | 2.6589 | 3.07*** |
Persistence:
0.664
Half-life:
2 days
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