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FII Vida Nova Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

67.36%

increased by 2.93%

1 Week

76.51%

increased by 12.08%

1 Month

82.97%

increased by 18.54%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FII Vida Nova S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 4, 2015 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst4.7631
3.86***
αARCH0.2963
5.28***
βGARCH0.3682
5.23***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ17.0263
2.88***
γ2-9.4499
-2.49**
γ34.0350
1.90*
γ4-3.2916
-1.09
γ53.1454
0.89
γ6-2.5705
-1.01
γ72.9975
1.98**
γ8-3.8787
-3.48***
γ92.6589
3.07***

0.664

Persistence

2d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.7631
3.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2963
5.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3682
5.23***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ17.0263
2.88***
γ2-9.4499
-2.49**
γ34.0350
1.90*
γ4-3.2916
-1.09
γ53.1454
0.89
γ6-2.5705
-1.01
γ72.9975
1.98**
γ8-3.8787
-3.48***
γ92.6589
3.07***

Persistence:

0.664

Half-life:

2 days