V-Lab
FII Vida Nova GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
170.25%
increased by 32.10%
1 Week
183.03%
increased by 44.88%
1 Month
226.36%
increased by 88.21%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 4, 2015 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.09 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Unreliable tails: v = 2.09 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3,544.9170 | 1.34 |
| αARCH | 0.2468 | 30.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9974 | 522.74*** |
| νDF | 2.0862 | 263.27*** |
0.997
Persistence265d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3,544.9170 | 1.34 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2468 | 30.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9974 | 522.74*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0862 | 263.27*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
265 days
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