V-Lab
FII Vida Nova AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
60.36%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Week
71.36%
increased by 9.82%
1 Month
80.37%
increased by 18.83%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 4, 2015 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 7.9195 | 3.46*** |
| αARCH | 0.2953 | 4.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4204 | 9.32*** |
| γleverage | -0.1483 | -0.16 |
0.716
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7.9195 | 3.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2953 | 4.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4204 | 9.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1483 | -0.16 |
Persistence:
0.716
Half-life:
2 days
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