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V-Lab

Town Centre Securities PLC AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

29.05%

decreased by 0.72%

1 Week

29.24%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Month

29.94%

increased by 0.17%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Town Centre Securities PLC AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.47) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0427
2.53**
αARCH0.0648
8.80***
βGARCH0.9248
112.14***
γleverage0.4721
2.45**

0.990

Persistence

66d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0427
2.53**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0648
8.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9248
112.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4721
2.45**

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

66 days