V-Lab
Town Centre Securities PLC AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
29.05%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
29.24%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Month
29.94%
increased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.47) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0427 | 2.53** |
| αARCH | 0.0648 | 8.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9248 | 112.14*** |
| γleverage | 0.4721 | 2.45** |
0.990
Persistence66d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0427 | 2.53** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0648 | 8.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9248 | 112.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4721 | 2.45** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
66 days
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