V-Lab
Town Centre Securities PLC GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
30.17%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Week
30.30%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Month
30.79%
increased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 103 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 127% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~103 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 127% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0401 | 3.43*** |
| αARCH | 0.0323 | 3.50*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9405 | 118.32*** |
| γleverage | 0.0410 | 2.09** |
0.993
Persistence103d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0401 | 3.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0323 | 3.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9405 | 118.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0410 | 2.09** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
103 days
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