Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Town Centre Securities PLC GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

30.17%

decreased by 0.55%

1 Week

30.30%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Month

30.79%

increased by 0.07%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Town Centre Securities PLC GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 103 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 127% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~103 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 127% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0401
3.43***
αARCH0.0323
3.50***
βGARCH0.9405
118.32***
γleverage0.0410
2.09**

0.993

Persistence

103d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0401
3.43***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0323
3.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9405
118.32***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0410
2.09**

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

103 days