V-Lab
XP Corporate Macae Fundo DE GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
12.97%
1 Week
15.03%
1 Month
21.35%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 8, 2013 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1141 | 4.82*** |
| αARCH | 0.2785 | 4.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7778 | 32.47*** |
| γleverage | -0.1125 | -1.17 |
1.000
Persistence693147d
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1141 | 4.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2785 | 4.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7778 | 32.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1125 | -1.17 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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