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XP Corporate Macae Fundo DE GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

12.97%

decreased by 0.37%

1 Week

15.03%

increased by 1.69%

1 Month

21.35%

increased by 8.01%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of XP Corporate Macae Fundo DE GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 8, 2013 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~693147 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1141
4.82***
αARCH0.2785
4.03***
βGARCH0.7778
32.47***
γleverage-0.1125
-1.17

1.000

Persistence

693147d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1141
4.82***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2785
4.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7778
32.47***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1125
-1.17

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days