V-Lab
Simon Property Group Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
16.86%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Week
17.30%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
18.77%
increased by 1.36%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:16 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 14, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 115% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 115% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0488 | 6.28*** |
| αARCH | 0.0544 | 5.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8974 | 106.99*** |
| γleverage | 0.0628 | 2.43** |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0488 | 6.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0544 | 5.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8974 | 106.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0628 | 2.43** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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