V-Lab
H&R Real Estate Investment Trust GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
22.10%
increased by 0.07%
1 Week
22.16%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
22.40%
increased by 0.37%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 1997 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 579 trading days (~2.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 246% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~579 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 246% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0077 | 1.48 |
| αARCH | 0.0217 | 3.42*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9505 | 77.55*** |
| γleverage | 0.0533 | 2.14** |
0.999
Persistence579d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0077 | 1.48 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0217 | 3.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9505 | 77.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0533 | 2.14** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
579 days
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